Urgent Agenda will be devoting almost all of its coverage in the next day to the important elections taking place around the country, especially the governor contests in Virginia and New Jersey, the mayoralty election in New York, and various propositions on ballots across the country that may have some national meaning.

As it stands now, the psychology that governs politics holds that what happens in these elections will have a profound effect on the results of next year's midterms and on the presidential election of 2024.  I agree.  Both parties are in disarray, with the Democrats reduced to a train wreck and the Republicans heavily guided by whether Donald Trump will run for president again.  Neither party boasts strong and broad leadership.  The Democrats have a weak presidential bench, and the Republicans have a better one, but, again, waiting on Trump.

The key indicator race is in Virginia.  Here is a state, once the seat of the Confederacy, that has drifted from solidly conservative to almost liberal.  Biden won Virginia by ten points.  Now there is political tumult in Mr. Jefferson's home state.  Out of nowhere comes a non-politician named Glenn Youngkin, a moderate conservative who has made educational decay the theme of his campaign...and he is running neck and neck with former Governor Terry McAuliffe, who is well-known throughout the state.  If Youngkin can pull off an upset victory, it will be a political earthquake, a message to the Democrats that no state is safe, and that the ultra-liberal policies of Joe Biden are electoral losers.  If Youngkin wins, look for open civil warfare among the Democrats.  In Virginia, a star will be born, but the knives will be out.

When examining the Virginia results, be sure to observe how well Democrat McAuliffe does among traditionally Democratic interest groups – the blacks, the Hispanics, suburban women, Asian-Americans.  There are signs that loyalty to the Democratic Party among the members of these groups is cracking.  Voters are starting to think for themselves.  We'll see if such rebellious behavior actually shows up, or if Virginians return to their longtime roots.

Also, if the election is close, but leaning Youngkin, look for attempts by the Democrats to challenge the outcome.  They're very good at this, suddenly discovering that there are 150,000 missing absentee ballots. Where could they be?

The other races are less significant than the one in Virginia.  While some Republicans claim that the governor race in Democratic New Jersey is tightening, I'd have to see more to accept that analysis.  Democratic Governor Phil Murphy will probably get another term, but Republican challenger Jack Ciattarell is moving up in the polls...with zero days to go until the election.

The election for mayor of New York City will probably be a coronation.  Eric Adams, a former police officer and today president of the borough of Brooklyn, is the Democratic candidate in a city with a seven to one Democratic registration advantage.  The key point here is that Adams is a moderate Democrat, no member of the lunatic fringe.  He says he's the future of the Democratic Party, and he may well be.

We await real numbers.

November 1, 2021